Evaluation of Selected Numerical Weather Prediction Models for a Case of Widespread Rainfall over Central and Southern Nigeria
Author: Chibuzo N Agogbuo Abstract Precipitation forecasts from four Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models are evaluated for a case of widespread rainfall event over Central and Southern Nigeria on the 21 st of March 2015. The four models evaluated are the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) with a resolution of 25 km, The UKMET model 20km, NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) 50km and the Weather Research and Forecast Model (WRF) with 10km resolution. Precipitation forecasts are compared with observed precipitation at station and gridded observation points for different rainfall amount thresholds using the Method of Objective-based Diagnostic Evaluation (MODE), Grid statistics and Point Statistics. The global models ECMWF, UKMET and GFS underestimated the rainfall amount when compared to the WRF regional model. The global models recorded a critical success index (CSI) of less than 10% while the regional WRF model recorded a critical succ...
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